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After the holiday, PVC inventory has increased significantly, and the market has not shown any signs of improvement yet

Social inventory: As of February 19, 2024, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China has increased, with social inventory in East and South China at around 569000 tons, a month on month increase of 22.71%. The inventory of sample warehouses in East China is about 495000 tons, and the inventory of sample warehouses in South China is about 74000 tons.

Enterprise inventory: As of February 19, 2024, the inventory of domestic PVC sample production enterprises has increased, approximately 370400 tons, a month on month increase of 31.72%.

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Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, PVC futures have shown a weak performance, with spot market prices stabilizing and falling. Market traders have a strong intention to raise prices in order to reduce losses, and the overall market transaction atmosphere remains weak. From the perspective of PVC production enterprises, PVC production is normal during holidays, with a significant accumulation of inventory and supply pressure. However, considering factors such as high costs, most PVC production enterprises mainly raise prices after holidays, while some PVC enterprises seal off and do not provide quotes. Negotiations on actual orders are the main focus. From the perspective of downstream demand, most downstream product enterprises have not yet resumed work, and overall downstream demand is still poor. Even downstream product enterprises that have resumed operation are mainly focused on digesting their previous raw material inventory, and their intention to receive goods is not significant. They still maintain the previous low price rigid demand procurement. As of February 19th, the domestic PVC market prices have been weakly adjusted. The mainstream reference for calcium carbide 5-type materials is around 5520-5720 yuan/ton, and the mainstream reference for ethylene materials is 5750-6050 yuan/ton.

In the future, PVC inventory has accumulated significantly after a Spring Festival holiday, while downstream product enterprises mostly recover after the 15th day of the first lunar month, and overall demand is still weak. Therefore, the basic supply and demand situation is still poor, and there is currently no news to boost the macro level. The increase in export volume alone is not enough to support the price rebound. It can only be said that the increase in export volume and the high cost side are only factors that support the PVC price from falling sharply. Therefore, in this situation, It is expected that the PVC market will remain low and volatile in the short term. From the perspective of operational strategy, it is recommended to replenish at moderate dips, look more and move less, and operate cautiously.

Post time: Feb-26-2024