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Expected increase in polyethylene supply pressure

In June 2024, the maintenance losses of polyethylene plants continued to decrease compared to the previous month. Although some plants experienced temporary shutdowns or load reductions, the early maintenance plants were gradually restarted, resulting in a decrease in monthly equipment maintenance losses compared to the previous month. According to statistics from Jinlianchuang, the maintenance loss of polyethylene production equipment in June was about 428900 tons, a decrease of 2.76% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 17.19%. Among them, there are approximately 34900 tons of LDPE maintenance losses, 249600 tons of HDPE maintenance losses, and 144400 tons of LLDPE maintenance losses involved.

In June, Maoming Petrochemical's new high pressure, Lanzhou Petrochemical's new full density, Fujian Lianhe's full density, Shanghai Jinfei's low pressure, Guangdong Petrochemical's low pressure, and middling coal Yulin Energy and Chemical's full density devices had completed preliminary maintenance and restart; Jilin Petrochemical's low pressure/linear, Zhejiang Petrochemical's high pressure/1 # full density, Shanghai Petrochemical's high pressure 1PE second line, China South Korea Petrochemical's low pressure first line, a joint venture in South China's high pressure, Baolai Anderbassel full density, Shanghai Jinfei low pressure, and Guangdong Petrochemical's full density first line units have been restarted after temporary shutdown; Zhongtian Hechuang High Voltage/Linear, Zhong'an United Linear, Shanghai Petrochemical Low Voltage, Sino Korean Petrochemical Phase II Low Voltage, and Lanzhou Petrochemical Old Full Density Unit shutdown and maintenance; Operating shutdown of Yanshan Petrochemical's low-voltage first line equipment; Heilongjiang Haiguo Longyou Full Density, Qilu Petrochemical Low Voltage B Line/Full Density/High Voltage, and Yanshan Petrochemical Low Voltage Second Line Units are still in a shutdown and maintenance state.


In the first half of 2024, the loss of polyethylene equipment was approximately 3.2409 million tons, of which 2.2272 million tons were lost during equipment maintenance, an increase of 28.14% compared to the same period last year.

In the second half of the year, maintenance is planned for equipment such as Wanhua Chemical Full Density, Huajin Ethylene Low Pressure, Shenhua Xinjiang High Pressure, Shanghai Petrochemical High Pressure, Jilin Petrochemical Low Pressure/Linear, Hainan Refining Low Pressure, Tianjin Petrochemical Linear, Huatai Shengfu Full Density, China South Korea Petrochemical Phase II Low Pressure, and Fujian United Full Density. Overall, the maintenance of domestic petrochemical plants is relatively concentrated from July to August, and the number of maintenance plants will significantly decrease after September.

In terms of new production capacity, four enterprises will join the polyethylene market in the second half of the year, with a total of 3.45 million tons/year of new production capacity. By variety, the new production capacity for low-pressure is 800000 tons/year, the new production capacity for high-pressure is 250000 tons/year, the linear new production capacity is 300000 tons/year, the full density new production capacity is 2 million tons/year, and the new production capacity for ultra-high polymer is 100000 tons/year; From the perspective of regional distribution, the new production capacity in 2024 is mainly concentrated in North China and Northwest China. Among them, North China will add 1.95 million tons of new production capacity, ranking first, followed closely by Northwest China, with an additional production capacity of 1.5 million tons. As these new production capacities are put into the market as scheduled, the supply pressure on the polyethylene market will further intensify.

Post time: Jul-09-2024