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Is the soaring high pressure too high to withstand the cold

From January to June 2024, the domestic polyethylene market began an upward trend, with very little time and space for a pullback or temporary decline. Among them, high-pressure products showed the strongest performance. On May 28, high-pressure ordinary film materials broke through the 10000 yuan mark, and then continued to soar upwards. As of June 16, high-pressure ordinary film materials in North China reached 10600-10700 yuan/ton. There are two main advantages among them. Firstly, the high import pressure has led the rising market due to factors such as rising shipping costs, difficulty in finding containers, and rising global prices. 2、 Part of the domestically produced equipment underwent maintenance. Zhongtian Hechuang's 570000 ton/year high-pressure equipment entered a major overhaul from June 15th until July. Qilu Petrochemical continued to shut down, while Yanshan Petrochemical mainly produces EVA, resulting in a decrease in supply in the high-pressure market.

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In 2024, the domestic production of high-voltage products has significantly decreased, while the production of linear and low-voltage products has significantly increased. High voltage maintenance in China is relatively concentrated, and the operating rate of petrochemical plants has decreased, which is the main supporting factor for the strong trend of high-voltage in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, import pressure led the domestic market to rise in May due to the impact of rising shipping costs.

With the rapid rise of high voltage, the price difference between high voltage and linear products has significantly widened. On June 16th, the price difference between high voltage and linear products reached over 2000 yuan/ton, and the demand for linear products in the off-season is clearly weak. High voltage continues to rise under the incentive of Zhongtian device maintenance, but the follow-up efforts at high prices are also clearly insufficient, and market participants are generally in a wait-and-see situation. June to July is the off-season for domestic demand, with high pressure. Currently, prices are expected to continue to rise and lack momentum. Supported by the major overhaul of Zhongtian equipment and insufficient resources, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level.

Post time: Jun-24-2024