In April, it is expected that China's PE supply (domestic+import+regeneration) will reach 3.76 million tons, a decrease of 11.43% compared to the previous month. On the domestic side, there has been a significant increase in domestic maintenance equipment, with a month on month decrease of 9.91% in domestic production. From a variety perspective, in April, except for Qilu, LDPE production has not yet resumed, and other production lines are basically operating normally. LDPE production and supply are expected to increase by 2 percentage points month on month. The price difference of HD-LL has fallen, but in April, LLDPE and HDPE maintenance were more concentrated, and the proportion of HDPE/LLDPE production decreased by 1 percentage point (month on month). From May to June, domestic resources gradually recovered with the maintenance of equipment, and by June they had basically recovered to a high level.
In terms of imports, there was not much pressure on overseas supply in April, and seasonal supply may decline. It is expected that PE imports will decrease by 9.03% month on month. Based on seasonal supply, orders, and price differences between domestic and international markets, it is expected that China's PE import volume will remain at a medium to low level from May to June, with monthly imports possibly ranging from 1.1 to 1.2 million tons. During this period, pay attention to the increase in resources in the Middle East and the United States.
In terms of supply of recycled PE, the price difference between new and old materials remained high in April, but the demand side support fell, and it is expected that the supply of recycled PE will fall seasonally. The demand for recycled PE from May to June will continue to decline seasonally, and it is expected that its supply will continue to decline. However, the overall supply expectation is still higher than the same period last year.
In terms of plastic product production in China, the plastic product production in March was 6.786 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. The cumulative production of PE plastic products in China from January to March was 17.164 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%.
In terms of China's plastic product exports, in March, China's plastic product exports reached 2.1837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%. From January to March, China's plastic product exports reached 6.712 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.86%. In March, China's export of PE shopping bag products reached 102600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.49%. From January to March, China's cumulative export of PE shopping bag products reached 291300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.11%.
Post time: Apr-29-2024