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Where is polyolefin going to continue the profit cycle of plastic products?

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2024, PPI (Producer Price Index) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month; The purchasing prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.3% month on month. On average, from January to April, PPI decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 3.3%. Looking at the year-on-year changes in PPI in April, prices of means of production decreased by 3.1%, affecting the overall level of PPI by about 2.32 percentage points. Among them, the industrial prices of raw materials decreased by 1.9%, and the prices of processing industries decreased by 3.6%. In April, there was a year-on-year differentiation between the prices of the processing industry and the raw material industry, and the negative difference between the two widened. From the perspective of segmented industries, the price growth rate of plastic products and synthetic materials has narrowed synchronously, with the difference slightly narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. The price of synthetic materials is still fluctuating. In the short term, it is inevitable that PP and PE futures prices will break through the previous resistance level, and a brief adjustment is inevitable.

In April, the prices of the processing industry decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which was the same as in March; The prices of raw materials in the industry decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, which is 1.0 percentage point narrower than in March. Due to the smaller decrease in raw material prices compared to processing industry prices, the difference between the two represents a negative and expanding profit in the processing industry.


Industrial profits are generally inversely proportional to the prices of raw materials and processing industries. As the profits of the processing industry fell from the top formed in June 2023, corresponding to the synchronous bottom recovery of the growth rate of raw material and processing industry prices. In February, there was a disturbance, and the processing industry and raw material prices failed to maintain an upward trend, showing a brief fluctuation since the bottom. In March, it returned to its previous trend, corresponding to a decrease in processing industry profits and an increase in raw material prices. In April, the profits of the processing industry continued to decline. In the medium to long term, the trend of lower processing industry profits and higher raw material prices will continue.

In April, the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points narrower than in March; The price of rubber and plastic products decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, which narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to March; The price of synthetic materials decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points narrower than in March; The prices of plastic products in the industry decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to March. As shown in the figure, the profit of plastic products has declined, and overall it has maintained a continuous downward trend, with only a slight increase in February. After a brief disturbance, the previous trend continues.

Post time: Jun-03-2024