In October 2025, China’s foreign trade import and export growth slowed significantly. Affected by multiple factors including falling international oil prices and U.S. tariff policies, the export growth of plastic products remained sluggish, while the polyolefin market continued to face an oversupply situation with prices lingering in a low-range fluctuation.
Customs data shows that China’s total import and export value in October 2025 reached 520.63 billion US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 8.1% and a slight year-on-year drop of 0.3%. Among this, exports stood at 305.35 billion US dollars, down 1.1% year-on-year. For specific products, the export value of plastic products in October was 55.04 billion yuan, a sharp year-on-year decline of 9.5%. From January to October, the cumulative export value reached 614.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, which was lower than the national average export growth rate of 5.3% for goods.
Affected by the U.S. high tariff of nearly 41.3%, China’s exports to the United States dropped by 17.1% year-on-year in the first 10 months, with plastic product exports to the U.S. seeing a particularly obvious decline, becoming a major drag on export growth.
On the import side, primary-shaped plastic raw materials experienced both volume and price declines. In October 2025, imports of such materials were 2.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, with an import value of 21.27 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year. From January to October, cumulative imports reached 22.12 million tons with a value of 236.83 billion yuan, falling by 7.6% and 8.2% year-on-year respectively. This phenomenon is mainly due to the continuous decline in international oil prices since mid-January, which drove the synchronous drop in polyolefin prices, closing most domestic import arbitrage windows and reducing the scale of raw material imports.
Domestically, the concentrated commissioning of new polyolefin production capacity in the first half of 2025 led to supply growth far outpacing demand growth. The oversupply fundamental situation continued to suppress prices. Although prices rebounded briefly in July due to domestic macro policies, the market lacked clear positive support afterward, leading to a sustained weak downward trend since August.
Looking ahead to November, international oil prices are expected to face continued downward pressure, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic polyolefin market is unlikely to improve significantly. Prices are projected to fluctuate after finding a bottom. For the whole year, exports may stabilize and rebound as Sino-U.S. trade frictions ease marginally and global manufacturing sentiment recovers, but high base effects and price factors will still pose constraints.
Post time: Nov-17-2025