Looking at the changes in polypropylene inventory data from 2019 to 2023, the highest point of the year usually occurs during the period after the Spring Festival holiday, followed by gradual fluctuations in inventory. The high point of polypropylene operation in the first half of the year occurred in mid to early January, mainly due to the strong recovery expectations after the optimization of prevention and control policies, driving up PP futures. At the same time, downstream purchases of holiday resources resulted in petrochemical inventories falling to the low level of the year; After the Spring Festival holiday, although there was an accumulation of inventory in the two oil depots, it was lower than market expectations, and then inventory fluctuated and dissipated; In addition, the second most significant point of inventory accumulation within the year was in October. During the National Day holiday, the sharp drop in international crude oil prices drove the post holiday PP spot market lower, and merchants had a strong bearish attitude, which hindered inventory depletion; In addition, most of the units put into operation this year are large refining enterprises, and oil companies have a competitive advantage in low prices. Therefore, most of the petrochemical inventory is in a state of depletion.
The lowest point of intermediary inventory in 2023 appeared before the Spring Festival holiday, the highest point appeared after the Spring Festival, and then gradually fluctuated and dissipated. In mid to early January, macroeconomic policies boosted the rise of PP futures, and the spot market followed suit. Traders actively shipped, and inventory was significantly depleted; Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, midstream inventory has accumulated, and businesses are mainly reducing prices to reduce inventory; In addition, the expansion of new equipment was concentrated within the year, and although inventory was gradually reduced, the inventory level was difficult to reach a new low in previous years. The inventory level of intermediaries during the year was higher than the same period in five years.
Post time: Dec-18-2023