Continuous Capacity Expansion: Analysis on Regional Changes in China’s Polyethylene Consumption

In 2025, China’s polyethylene (PE) capacity will maintain steady growth, reshaping the regional supply pattern significantly. Regionally, capacity will be concentrated in the Northwest, South China, and North China, with South China expected to surpass North China as the second-largest capacity hub. A geographical mismatch between supply and demand is evident: the Northwest and Northeast, as net export regions, have limited local consumption and obvious supply surpluses. Meanwhile, traditional major consumption areas including East, South, and North China still face demand gaps despite concentrated new capacity additions. Consumption in Central and Southwest China is rising due to regional policies and industrial transfers from the East, but their heavy reliance on resource allocation from neighboring regions remains unchanged. East, South, and North China will remain the core consumption regions, accounting for the largest shares—East and South China are projected to take 26.98% and 26.35% of total consumption respectively, supported by developed downstream industries and strong demand. North China, with enhanced self-sufficiency from new capacity, will shift from a major resource inflow area to a partial export region. Driven by national strategies, Central and Southwest China’s consumption shares have reached 9.65% and 8%. Looking ahead, significant demand growth will focus on southeast coastal industrial upgrading areas (Guangdong, Zhejiang) and central/western regions undertaking industrial transfers.