Introduction
From February 20 to 24, 2026, the U.S. tariff policy underwent drastic adjustments. The impact of this tariff fluctuation on China’s chemical industry market showed structural differentiation, and the core transmission path has shifted from “direct trade impact” to “downstream demand suppression and global trade flow restructuring”.
I. Event Description
From February 20 to 24, 2026, the U.S. tariff policy experienced a dramatic reversal: on February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the 10% “reciprocal tariff” previously imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal and revoked it; however, on February 24, the U.S. government immediately imposed a 15% temporary tariff on global goods in accordance with Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and launched a new Section 301 investigation. This dramatic reversal has added high uncertainty to the prospect of China-U.S. trade and made the global trade pattern more complex.
II. Overall Impact
The impact of this tariff fluctuation on China’s chemical industry market shows structural differentiation: most basic chemical raw materials are barely affected by tariff changes due to their minimal direct exports to the United States; however, as a major exporter of downstream consumer goods such as plastic products and textiles, China’s related industries have seen significantly compressed profits and increased risk of order loss, which in turn transmits the pressure of demand contraction to the upstream raw material sector. At the same time, the global trade flow has been forced to restructure, and some products are facing potential challenges such as rising costs of transshipment through third countries or the influx of U.S. resources.
III. Overall Impact on the Plastics Industry and Product-Specific Effects
The plastics industry is under overall pressure. Tariffs transmit negative impacts mainly by suppressing exports of downstream products and exacerbating global oversupply, with differentiated impacts on various products:
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ABS: The short-term impact is limited; in the medium and long term, affected by downstream exports and overdrawn domestic demand, the oversupply situation will suppress prices;
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PS: Tariff uncertainty may lead to a decrease in downstream export orders, forming an impact on market demand;
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EPS: Domestic production capacity is oversupplied, with significant export growth that has limited effect on alleviating oversupply. Enterprises have ceased focusing on the United States market and turned to emerging markets;
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POM: Affected by downstream industries exporting to the U.S., it faces indirect downward risks of profit squeeze and demand reduction;
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PC and PA66: The proportion of exports to the U.S. is extremely low, and tariff adjustments have little overall impact;
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PA6: Export pressure has increased, price advantage has disappeared, downstream demand may shrink, and enterprises need to develop new markets to hedge against tariff risks;
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Polyethylene (PE): The proportion of exports to the U.S. is only 0.13%, with little direct impact, but attention should be paid to the indirect transmission of restricted downstream product exports and the impact of global trade flow restructuring;
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EVA: The impact on raw material import and export is small, but exports of downstream products such as shoe materials are more affected; in the medium and long term, it will suppress the price of general-purpose EVA.
IV. Overall Impact on the Chlor-Alkali Industry and Product-Specific Effects
The chlor-alkali industry is barely affected directly, except for float glass, whose exports to the U.S. are completely blocked due to high superimposed tariffs. The impacts on various products are differentiated:
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PVC: The proportion of imports and exports to the U.S. is extremely low, and tariff adjustments have little impact on it;
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Caustic Soda: Exports to the U.S. are negligible; tariff adjustments have boosted market confidence but have no substantial impact;
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Soda Ash: Although it has obtained tariff exemption, forming a superficial positive, exports to the U.S. are very few, and the actual positive impact is limited;
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Glass: The superposition of anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs and new temporary tariffs has completely deprived it of competitiveness in exports to the U.S., increasing the supply pressure on domestic manufacturers.
V. Overall Summary
The adjustment of United States tariff policy has limited and differentiated impacts on China’s plastics and chlor-alkali industries. Most raw materials are “immune” due to their low dependence on the United States, but the medium and long-term hidden worries caused by blocked downstream product exports and global trade flow restructuring cannot be ignored. In the future, the plastics industry needs to guard against demand contraction and oversupply pressure, the chlor-alkali industry needs to pay attention to the predicament of special varieties such as glass, and it will become normal for enterprises to accelerate the diversification of market layout and avoid trade barriers.
Post time: Feb-25-2026