The “floodgate” for domestic polyethylene (PE) market supply growth has opened, emerging as a key bearish factor, and the price downtrend is likely to continue. Without effective bullish drivers, the market will remain weak in the short term.
Supply Side
As of the press date in 2025, domestic PE production capacity has reached 37.75 million tons, broken down as follows: 3.955 million tons of LDPE, 16.44 million tons of LLDPE, and 17.355 million tons of HDPE. By the end of October, the following facilities will start production sequentially:
- Guangxi Petrochemical’s 400,000 tons/year full-density PE unit and 300,000 tons/year HDPE unit
- ExxonMobil Huizhou’s 500,000 tons/year LDPE unit
This additional capacity will further intensify the market’s “supply surplus and weak demand” pattern.
Price Performance
In 2025, PE prices have fluctuated downward, with the peak season performance deviating from the seasonal trends of previous years. Key data for 2024-2025 PE price index (monthly average) is as follows:
- Highest point: 9,215.21 in June 2024
- Lowest point: 8,106.88 in October 2025
As of October 17, the average PE price index in October stood at 8,106.88, a month-on-month decrease of 130.77 (-1.59%) from September. LDPE and LLDPE saw significant price drops, while HDPE remained at a weak low level.
Outlook for the Future
Three factors will continue to pressure the market:
- Supply: Fewer PE units will undergo maintenance, while new capacities come online, leading to sustained supply growth.
- Demand: The peak season failed to boost demand; end-users remain cautious, placing only small orders, which cannot support prices.
- Cost: Oil prices are expected to decline as geopolitical risks ease, weakening cost support for PE.
It is predicted that the PE price downtrend will continue from late October to November. The South China region may see faster price drops, affected by new local capacities and imported supplies.
Post time: Oct-27-2025