In 2025, due to the continuous decline in international oil prices, the competitive landscape of the polyethylene market has undergone a fundamental transformation.
- Shift in Competitive Focus: Industry competition has shifted from a simple game of demand to a “battle of production technology routes” driven by costs.
- Rise of the Oil-Based Route: Leveraging their sharply increased cost advantage, oil-based polyethylene enterprises have seen significant profit growth (theoretical profit reached 422 RMB/ton from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 300%) and reclaimed dominant market pricing power from coal chemical and light hydrocarbon cracking routes.
- Pressure on Other Routes:Coal-Based Polyethylene: Due to its cost dependence on relatively stable domestic coal prices, its advantage has diminished, leading to declining profits and even occasional negative profits. The “price floor” it once determined has been broken.Light Hydrocarbon Cracking (Ethane Route): While still the lowest-cost route, the price gap with low-cost oil-based feedstock has been drastically compressed.
- Market Impact:Price System Reconstruction: The overall price level of the polyethylene market has been pulled down by oil-based enterprises, and a new price system is being reconstructed around the marginal cost of oil-based production.Intensified Competition: Emboldened by rising profits, oil-based producers have boosted production enthusiasm, shifting their strategy from “profit protection” to “market share 争夺”. This has led to even fiercer market competition.Diminished Quality Differentiation: With advancements in coal chemical technology, the quality gap between products from different routes has narrowed. Currently, supply-demand dynamics and costs are the absolute dominant factors in the market.
- Future Trend: Amid the brutal competition in the general-purpose materials market, all producers clearly recognize that high-endization is the only way forward.
One-sentence Summary: The era of low oil prices has arrived, with oil-based polyethylene reshaping the market, dominating pricing, intensifying competition, and driving the industry towards high-end transformation.
Post time: Nov-24-2025