China’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry has concluded its nearly eight-year capacity expansion cycle, with no new capacity plans for 2026, entering a structural adjustment phase. Coupled with overseas high-cost capacity withdrawal and export support, supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve marginally, verified by authoritative institutions.
Supply-side data shows steady growth in domestic PVC capacity and output from 2018 to 2025. 2025 saw 2.2 million tons of new capacity added, with ethylene-based PVC proportion rising to 28%. Only minimal new capacity is pending globally in 2026, marking the end of expansion.
The 2025 PVC market correction led to industry-wide losses, with acetylene-based PVC hitting a historic low. Despite a year-end rebound, prices remain at the bottom, intensifying high-cost capacity withdrawal pressure.
Authorities are strengthening structural adjustments, including aging equipment inspections and new anti-unfair competition regulations. Approximately 3 million tons of high-cost capacity is expected to be phased out, optimizing the competitive landscape.
Demand side shows “domestic pressure, export support”: real estate-linked demand is under pressure, while flexible product output supports the market. 2025′s first 11 months saw 47% YoY export growth, with sustained growth expected.
Institutions note potential 2026-2028 inventory growth but at a slower pace. Loss pressure and policy-driven capacity reduction will lay the groundwork for supply-demand improvement, with price and profitability recovery expected.
The downstream PVC pipe market has promising prospects, with global scale projected to reach $131.1 billion by 2034 (CAGR 5.77%). China’s market shows an east-strong, west-weak pattern with a westward shift.
However, the PVC pipe industry faces low-end overcapacity. Profit concentration is evident, with global infrastructure, agricultural irrigation demand and technological upgrading driving future growth.
Post time: Jan-22-2026