Fluctuations in crude oil costs have recently roiled market sentiment. International crude oil prices retreated after an oscillatory rally, weakening sentiment support for the chemical market. While the short-term plastic and chemical supply chain sees a slight contraction, end-users show strong resistance to high-priced raw materials. Plagued by heavy inventory pressure, PVC underperforms the overall industrial chain.
PVC social inventory stands at 1.374 million tons, edging up 0.20% month-on-month and surging 70.63% year-on-year. According to Longzhong Data, as of March 26, the inventory-to-production days of China’s PVC manufacturers dropped 6.67% month-on-month to 5.6 days, as upstream supplies are intensively delivered to domestic and foreign markets. Market sentiment remains volatile, with end-users firmly resisting high prices.
Prolonged geopolitical tensions and fluctuating capital sentiment keep the market in a tug-of-war between geopolitical speculation and profit-taking. Despite the arrival of the peak demand season for the plastic and chemical supply chain, end enterprises’ resistance to high-priced raw materials weakens PVC’s supply and demand performance, leading to heavy intraday selling pressure. Supply contraction still provides solid short-term support, yet high prices have severely dampened downstream purchasing intent, suppressing demand and creating prominent negative feedback in the industrial chain.
With no clear conclusion to the US-Iran conflict, market volatility has amplified amid rising uncertainty. Taking Changzhou (East China) as the benchmark, the spot cash price for calcium carbide-based PVC SG-5 (warehouse pick-up) in East China fell 50 CNY/ton from the previous day to 5,450 CNY/ton. The PVC spot market remains weakly stable with a slight dip in transaction prices; the cash price for calcium carbide-based PVC SG-5 (warehouse pick-up) in East China ranges from 4,450 to 4,550 CNY/ton, while ethylene-based PVC transactions are open for negotiation. Short-term market sentiment is double suppressed by easing external geopolitical tensions and expectations of ample market supply, with the basis of PVC May contract in East China ranging from -50 to -150 CNY/ton.
Affected by the Middle East conflict, global refinery raw material supply has tightened sharply. Most overseas chlor-alkali plants have cut production loads, with some shutting down due to raw material shortages. Major manufacturers including Hanwha, Indonesia ASC, Thailand SCG and Formosa Plastics have all announced production cuts or shutdowns. Meanwhile, the phased-out of some international refineries and shutdowns of ethylene-based downstream plants have led to a drastic contraction in global PVC supply, which bodes well for China’s PVC exports.
On the domestic front, the Middle East conflict has curbed ethylene imports, raising the risk of production cuts or shutdowns at domestic ethylene-based PVC plants and fueling expectations of domestic supply contraction. Expectations of shrinking global supply have driven a sharp rally in PVC futures prices. Although Trump announced negotiations with Iran, the two sides remain far apart on terms. Crude oil trades strong in oscillation, and energy chemicals are mainly rebounding from lows. However, PVC underperforms other chemicals due to weak domestic demand and rising operating rates of calcium carbide-based PVC plants.
That said, high international PVC prices and optimistic export demand provide solid support for domestic PVC prices. Overall, PVC prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term; a pullback in crude oil prices, however, may weigh on PVC prices and keep the market in a bearish bias.
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Post time: Mar-31-2026