Supply-Demand Imbalance Coupled With The Off-Season Effect, The PVC Market Is In Weak Oscillation And Grinding At The Bottom.

Currently, the PVC market is in a weak oscillating pattern, primarily due to the unresolved supply-demand imbalance.

Core Supply and Inventory Situation

• The momentum of industrial production resumption has exceeded the impact of maintenance, with the operating rate of PVC powder rising to 80.55%.
• New production capacity in 2025 is being released concentratedly, with 2.2 million tons already put into production and 500,000 tons remaining to be released subsequently, resulting in loose supply.
• Social inventory in East and South China has increased to 544,100 tons, with slow inventory digestion. High inventory levels will persist throughout the fourth quarter.

Price and Cost Performance

• Both futures and spot markets have weakened simultaneously. The closing price of the main PVC futures contract (V2601) was 4,611 yuan/ton.
• The spot price of calcium carbide-based type 5 PVC ranges from 4,510 to 4,640 yuan/ton in East China and 4,620 to 4,670 yuan/ton in South China, with thin trading.
• Prices of raw materials (calcium carbide and caustic soda) operate at low levels, and cost support for the ethylene-based method is weak, squeezing the profit margins of chlor-alkali enterprises.

Demand and Overall Trend

• Demand has entered the seasonal off-season. Falling temperatures in northern regions have reduced construction activities, leading to weak downstream demand for PVC pipes, profiles and other major products.
• Triple pressure from supply constraints, high inventory and off-season demand persists. Without strong stimuli such as favorable macro policies in the short term, the market will continue its weak oscillation.
• Participants in the industrial chain need to closely monitor the pace of new capacity commissioning, inventory changes and cost fluctuations.