Market News
According to reports by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting on the 4th, the public relations department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that no merchant or oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past few hours, dismissing U.S. claims that vessels were already transiting the strait as “baseless and completely a lie”. The report added that any maritime operations violating the IRGC Navy’s established principles will face “serious risks”, and non-compliant vessels will be “forcibly intercepted”. (Source: Xinhua News Agency)
On May 4 local time, a reporter from China Media Group learned from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) that the Joint Maritime Intelligence Centre issued Notice No. 004-26, stating that due to ongoing regional military operations, the maritime security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remains at “extremely high”, with rising navigation risks. The notice noted a significant increase in naval presence in the relevant waters and continuous escalation of protection levels, meaning transiting vessels may receive frequent VHF communications calls, while congestion in anchorage areas has worsened amid increased traffic pressure. It specifically emphasized that due to uncleared mines in some waters, navigation within and near Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) areas carries an “extremely high risk”. Shipping companies are advised to fully assess risks, plan routes in advance, and ensure safety before vessel transits. (Source: CCTV News)
Comprehensive Analysis
During the May Day holiday, U.S.-Iranian tensions disrupted the energy market, leaving PVC facing mixed bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, ethylene feedstock prices remained relatively high due to tight domestic and international supply, with overseas producers cutting output to support prices and China’s exports maintaining strong resilience. Spring maintenance and production cuts by loss-making enterprises further reduced industry operating rates, driving inventory destocking across the industrial chain. On the demand side, real estate investment remained sluggish, with downstream buyers only replenishing essential low-cost inventories and weak terminal orders. Most downstream enterprises took 3-4 days of holidays around May Day, resulting in weak supply and demand alike. Overall, supply contraction and cost support underpinned spot prices, but weak demand capped upside potential. In the short term, PVC may stabilize with mild upward momentum, though futures are expected to fluctuate at low levels. Going forward, focus should be on the implementation of production cuts and the impact of demand recovery pace on inventory levels across the industrial chain.
Summary
Viewpoint: With phased supply contraction and persistently weak demand, PVC futures are expected to remain in low consolidation.
Core Logic:
The ethylene feedstock shortage is unlikely to ease in the short term. Overseas producers are cutting output to prop up prices, while China’s exports maintain competitive advantages. Combined with further expected supply reduction during spring maintenance, these factors form a bottom support for the market.
Growth in real estate development investment remains subdued, with no significant improvement in demand from downstream product manufacturers, who only replenish inventories at low price levels and show limited acceptance of high-cost supplies. While industrial chain inventories are declining, the pace is slow, and high inventory levels coupled with weak demand continue to cap price upside.
Post time: May-06-2026